[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210614
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DEAN AT 21/0600 UTC IS
NEAR 18.5N 86.8W...OR 87 NM/160 KM EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO...
AND 226 NM/420 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. HURRICANE
DEAN IS MOVING WEST 17 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 910 MB. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE LATEST
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DEAN IS BEARING DOWN ON THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS MOMENT. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W...
REACHING LAND IN MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 89W...AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 21N
TO 22N BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE
IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND EL SALVADOR IN A BAND
AWAY FROM THE CENTER FROM 12.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 87.5W AND 90W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF JAMAICA FROM 14N TO 18N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29N61W 22N63W
18N63W...AND SOUTH OF 18N ALONG 63W/64W. THIS WAVE CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN PHASE WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE ELONGATED
PUERTO RICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE WATERS JUST WEST OF MARTINIQUE/
ST.LUCIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W...AND
FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 52W AND 67W.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 11N30W 9N48W 15N60W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN
42W AND 44W...AND FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 2N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W. THE PRECIPITATION FROM 10N
TO 16N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W ALSO IS EAST OF THE 63W/64W TROPICAL
WAVE...AND PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE DEAN IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW EASILY REACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS NOW IS ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W. THE ORIENTATION OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST...FROM
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS COAST TO COASTAL MEXICO
NEAR 20N98W. THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS
MORNING AND FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AND EVENTUALLY THE REST OF MEXICO AS HURRICANE DEAN CONTINUES
ITS COURSE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DEAN IS HEADING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS MOMENT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 13N WEST OF 80W...
IN CENTRAL AMERICA NORTH OF NICARAGUA...AND THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ELONGATED
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR NORTH
CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 24N BETWEEN 66W AND
77W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM HURRICANE DEAN PASSES THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29N61W 22N63W 18N63W...AND SOUTH OF 18N
ALONG 63W/64W. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN PHASE WITH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE ELONGATED PUERTO RICO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE
WATERS JUST WEST OF MARTINIQUE/ST.LUCIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 10N TO 16N
BETWEEN 55W AND 60W...AND FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 52W AND 67W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N75W
STILL IS GUIDING THE DIRECTION OF HURRICANE DEAN. THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE PUERTO RICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER
IS CUTTING INTO THE AREA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W
AND 70W ARE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND THE 63W/64W
TROPICAL WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N33W TO 27N35W AND 21N38W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 500 NM TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N41W TO
A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N50W TO 32N62W 31N74W
AND EVENTUALLY TO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

$$
MT



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net