[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 201447
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT WILL BE AT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE
MEANTIME...RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A SINGLE EYEWALL THAT HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH COLDER TOPS IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL
BE HELD AT 130 KT...BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEAN
IS APPROACHING CATEGORY FIVE STATUS...AND IT IS EXPECTED REACH THAT
THRESHOLD LATER TODAY OVER THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE
YUCATAN...DEAN SHOULD RETAIN HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE CROSSING
AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS THEREFORE REQUIRED FOR THE WESTERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICIT IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BELOW...DEAN COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN BEFORE ITS
FINAL LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/18.  THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING...MODEL GUIDANCE...OR OFFICIAL
FORECAST.  DEAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A TRACK BETWEEN WEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WESTWARD-BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN A VERY NARROW GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/1500Z 17.9N  82.4W   130 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 18.2N  85.1W   140 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 19.0N  88.6W   100 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 19.9N  92.2W    80 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 21.0N  95.5W    95 KT
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 22.5N 102.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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