[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161247 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMD
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
846 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

AMENDED IN ORDER TO INCLUDE ONLY THE LATEST INFORMATION
ABOUT HURRICANE DEAN AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN


BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN AT 16/1200 UTC WAS NEAR
28.0N 97.2W...NEAR LAMAR TEXAS...OR ABOUT 22 NM/40 KM NORTHEAST
OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WERE
30 KT/55 KM PER HOUR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC OR THE
LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS NEAR 27N INLAND TO 31N BETWEEN 95W
AND 98W.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN AT 16/1200 UTC WAS NEAR 13.5N 53.3W
OR ABOUT 360 NM/665 KM EAST OF BARBADOS...AND ABOUT 445 NM/820 KM
EAST OF MARTINIQUE. HURRICANE DEAN WAS MOVING WEST 21 KT.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WERE NEAR 70 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 51W AND 56W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THE SURFACE
LOW HAS DISSIPATED. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL SLIGHTLY TILTED
CURVATURE REMAINS MOSTLY TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
34W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 64W S OF 18N MOVING
W 15-20 KT. WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE
IS OBSERVED. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 63W-67W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 7N25W 7N41W 12N49W THEN ALONG
12N56W 10N61W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE
AXIS E OF 20W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-38W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN FOCUS AGAIN THIS MORNING IS TROPICAL STORM ERIN
APPROACHING THE COAST OF TEXAS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN
UPPER HIGH REMAINS E ERIN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SSE TO
THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N W OF 84W TO OVER
CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.... AND S MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC AND IS DIGGING ACROSS FLORIDA PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE W FLORIDA COAST FROM
FORT MYERS TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 13N W OF 75W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N W OF 78W. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER CUBA TO HAITI GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 70W-76W.
ALTHOUGH THE ITCZ AXIS CROSSES THE N PORTION OF SOUTH
AMERICA...S PANAMA...AND W COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
IT IS ONLY GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA TO 12N IN
NICARAGUA. FOR THE MOST PART...DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN BRINGING CLEAR SKIES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 67W ACROSS FLORIDA
WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N73W. A WEAK REMNANT SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR
30N68W TO NEAR 26N71W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 67W-72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY RATHER BENIGN UPPER FEATURES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF HURRICANE DEAN. DRY STABLE AIR AND A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N44W GIVING THE
ATLC FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

$$
MT

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