[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 160849
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
500 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007

...DEAN BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.  A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.  HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS
LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLAND...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST OR ABOUT 485 MILES...
780 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 590 MILES...950 KM...EAST OF
MARTINIQUE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DEAN NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.4 N...52.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 24 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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