[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 160526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 26.5N 95.7W AT 16/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 120 NM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS OR 175 NM SSW OF
GALVESTON TEXAS MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC OR THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 26.5N-29.5N BETWEEN
93.5W-97W INCLUDING THE COASTAL AREA OF TEXAS. ERIN IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY HOWEVER HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ARE ALREADY ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

TROPICAL STORM DEAN IS CENTERED NEAR 13.1N 50.2W AT 16/0300 UTC
MOVING W AT 20 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEAN IS NO LONGER DISPLACED
INDICATING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT HAS WEAKENED AND A BANDING
FEATURE ALSO INDICATES THAT DEAN IS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N
BETWEEN 48W-53W. DEAN CONTINUES TO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A
WEAK 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL
ROTATION REMAINS MOSTLY TO THE W OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 31W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W S OF 18N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 61W-65W INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 9N34W 14N46W THEN ALONG
10N52W 8N60W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE
FROM 3N30W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 10N14W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 57W-61W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN FOCUS AGAIN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL STORM ERIN APPROACHING
THE COAST OF TEXAS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER HIGH
REMAINS NEAR ERIN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N BETWEEN 83W-93W TO OVER CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC AND
ACROSS FLORIDA PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALONG THE W FLORIDA COAST FROM FORT MYERS TO OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 13N W OF 75W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N W OF 82W. THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER E CUBA AND HAITI
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20 BETWEEN
68W-77W. ALTHOUGH THE ITCZ AXIS CROSSES THE N PORTION OF SOUTH
AMERICA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION IT
IS ONLY GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF COLOMBIA. FOR THE MOST
PART...DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BRINGING CLEAR
SKIES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W ACROSS FLORIDA
WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N72W. A WEAK REMNANT SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR
30N67W TO NEAR 24N71W GENERATING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
24N-32N BETWEEN 62W-72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY RATHER BENIGN UPPER FEATURES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TROPICAL
STORM DEAN. DRY STABLE AIR AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N45W GIVING THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

$$
WALLACE




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