[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 151543
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ERIN
BASED ON DATA FORM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE. THE CENTER WAS
FOUND A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...AND
THEREFORE THE INITIAL AND 12 HOUR LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY
AND NOW ERIN IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITH WINDS OF 45 KNOTS.
NO CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/1530Z 25.6N  93.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 26.0N  95.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 26.5N  97.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 27.0N  99.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 28.5N 100.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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