[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS CENTERED NEAR 24.6N 91.8W AT 15/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 320 NM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING NW AT 9 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME MORE ORGANIZED DURING
THE NIGHT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTING AT MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL
CENTERS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
OF THE CENTER OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THE LACK OF
CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND THE LIMITED TIME THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
OVER WATER THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TOO MUCH.

TROPICAL STORM DEAN IS CENTERED NEAR 12.2N 44.2W AT 15/0900 UTC
MOVING W AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE CENTER DUE
TO EASTERLY SHEAR BANDING IS BEGINNING BUT IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL
ORGANIZED. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10.5N-13N BETWEEN 42.5W-45W. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE RATHER
BRISKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. AS
DEAN CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES IT WILL BEGIN TO
ENCOUNTER WARMER WATER AND LESS WIND SHEAR AND WILL LIKELY
BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE ISLANDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT WITH A
1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AS THE BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION REMAINS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 28W-32W WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 28W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK
BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 56W-59W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W 14N25W 11N36W 13N40W 8N51W
10N62W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
46W-55W AND ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 10N-12N E OF 17W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IS NOW NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE IN THE CENTRAL GULF...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. DENSE
CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE NW
GULF N OF 25N W OF 92W TO THE TEXAS COAST. AN UPPER HIGH HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR T.D. FIVE WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW TO THE COAST NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
BORDER. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE FAR W ATLC TO OVER FLORIDA AND
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE W
FLORIDA COAST FROM FLORIDA BAY TO TAMPA. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT
THE SE GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 75W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N W OF 76W. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO
FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 13N71W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CROSSES THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 74W
TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. FOR THE MOST
PART...DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS
MAINLY E OF 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DIPS S INTO THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 69W TO
OVER FLORIDA WITH A WEAK REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N62W SW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W. THIS TROUGH
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 22N71W NE TO 29N67W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY RATHER BENIGN UPPER
FEATURES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN. DRY STABLE
AIR AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH W OF
THE AZORES WELL N OF THE REGION GIVING THE ATLC E OF 60W FAIR
WEATHER CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

$$
WALLACE




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