[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150503
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS UPGRADED AT 15/0300 UTC AND IS
CENTERED NEAR 23.9N 91.1W AT 15/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 370 NM ESE OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DID FIND A SMALL LOW LEVEL CENTER...THUS
THE UPGRADE TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE NE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN
89W-92W. ALTHOUGH RAPID DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM DEAN IS CENTERED NEAR 12.0N 42.3W AT 15/0300 UTC
MOVING W AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE CENTER DUE TO
EASTERLY SHEAR THIS IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 41W-44W. THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE RATHER BRISKLY BUT HAS SLOWED A LITTLE
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS CONTINUING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT WITH A
1012 MB LOW SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N27W. THE
SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WHILE THE BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL
ROTATION REMAINS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
S OF THE LOW AND ITCZ AXIS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 24W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK
BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 14N24W 12N33W 10N49W 9N62W.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 45W-47W AND
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-11N E OF 16W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IS NOW NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE IN THE S/CENTRAL GULF...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. DENSE
CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE N GULF
N OF 25N FROM 86W-95W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE LOUISIANA COAST TO A
LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE T.D. FIVE. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE FAR W ATLC TO OVER
FLORIDA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
W FLORIDA COAST FROM TAMPA TO THE BIG BEND AREA WITH HEAVY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E
OF 87W WHILE THE E MEXICO AND SE TEXAS COAST REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE AS T.D. FIVE CONTINUES ON ITS NW
TRACK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY N OF 19N W OF 80W AND A
SMALL CLUSTER OVER THE S PENINSULA OF HAITI. AN UPPER LOW N OF
PUERTO RICO EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SW TO
NEAR 14N73W. THE ITCZ AXIS CROSSES THE N PORTION OF SOUTH
AMERICA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY WITHIN 90
NM ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST. FOR THE MOST PART...DRY STABLE AIR
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME WIDELY
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 65W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DIPS S INTO THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 70W TO
OVER FLORIDA WITH A WEAKEN REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N61W SW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W. THIS TROUGH
CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 27N71W NE TO BEYOND
32N63W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SW ATLC TO OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA W OF 76W INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY RATHER BENIGN UPPER
FEATURES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN. MODERATELY
DRY STABLE AIR AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH NEAR 33N37W GIVING THE ATLC E OF 60W FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS
AND LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

$$
WALLACE


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