[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DEAN...UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR AT
1500 UTC...IS CENTERED NEAR 11.7N 39.4W AT 14/1500 UTC MOVING W
AT 20 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
DISPLACED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER DUE TO EASTERLY
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 38W-41W. DEAN IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS THE EASTERLY SHEAR
DECREASES. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERALLY
WESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N90W...APPROXIMATELY 80 NM
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE IS
SOUTH OF 19N ALONG 90W/91W. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...S OF 28N
BETWEEN 85W-92W. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMATION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE WNW NEAR 10-15 KT. INTERESTS
IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT WITH A
1010 MB LOW JUST SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N25W. THIS
WAVE HAS A WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 23W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL ROTATION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
INVERTED-V CURVATURE OBSERVED. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY/CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1007 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE EAST PACIFIC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 12N30W 13N35W 10N46W 10N60W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ
FROM 3N-10N E OF 27W. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM DEAN IS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE THE 1007 MB SFC LOW
JUST OFF THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN AS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 24N87W...E OF THE SURFACE
LOW...IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE NW GULF NEAR 26N97W AND IS
SUPPORTING A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST FROM THE
MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER TO CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE COAST TO 92W
NORTH OF 25N. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N FROM A 1010 MB SFC LOW
CENTERED OVER COLOMBIA. AN UPPER HIGH N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY W OF 82W. DRY STABLE AIR
AND MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS SOUTH TO 27N. A
SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR 31N66W TO 28N77W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100/150 NM OF LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 26N78W NE TO BEYOND 32N60W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 75W-79W BETWEEN THE SFC
TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 33N36W DOMINATES THE CENTRAL
AND EAST ATLC PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF 57W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM DEAN.

$$
WADDINGTON




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