[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS CENTERED NEAR 12.0N 36.8W AT 14/0900
UTC MOVING W AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE CENTER DUE TO
EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 37W-42W. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RATHER BRISKLY IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N88W...OR JUST OFF THE N COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST
OT THE W OF THE LOW CENTER. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES INTERACT WITH
AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF...S OF 27N
BETWEEN 83W-90W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE WNW
NEAR 10-15 KT. INTERESTS IN THE W GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT WITH A
1010 MB LOW JUST S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N24W. THIS
WAVE HAS A WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 11N23W TO 13N28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL ROTATION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE OBSERVED. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY/CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1007 MB LOW IN THE SPACIAL
FEATURES CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST W OF THE LOW. THE WAVE IS ALONG
89W S OF 26N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS
CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N15W 14N27W 13N34W 10N46W 11N62W.
SEE SPACIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N E OF 37W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE THE 1007 MB LOW JUST
OFF THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN AS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. A MID/UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW GULF NEAR 26N96W
AND IS SUPPORTING A BAND OF SCATTRED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF
20N. AN UPPER HIGH IS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE LOW JUST N OF THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N86W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY MENTIONED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER HIGH JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS GIVING THE W
CARIBBEAN WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY W OF 82W. AN ELONGATED CUT-OFF UPPER LOW
EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO SW TO NEAR 13N75W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CROSSES THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION S OF 13N FROM 64W-80W. FOR THE MOST PART...DRY STABLE
AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME WIDELY
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DIPS S OF THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 67W WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR 33N67W
TO 28N76W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
90/120 NM OF LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W NE TO BEYOND
32N62W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH JUST N OF THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS E ALONG 26N68W
NARROWING TO 30N60W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER LOW/HIGH/LOW WITH
MODERATELY DRY STABLE AIR AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N33W GIVING THE ATLC E OF 60W FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

$$
WALLACE





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