[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140514
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS CENTERED NEAR 12.0N 35.0W AT 14/0300
UTC MOVING W AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE CENTER DUE TO
EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 34W-40W. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE RATHER BRISKLY IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
TUESDAY.

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N87W...OR ALONG THE N COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING
TO MOVE W LEAVING THE LOW CENTER BEHIND. THE SYSTEM IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO
AND PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE GULF...S OF 27N E OF 90W. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM ON TUESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES TO THE WNW NEAR 10-15 KT. INTERESTS IN THE W GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT WITH A
1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N. THIS WAVE HAS A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE OBSERVED. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1006 MB LOW IN
THE SPACIAL FEATURES IS BEGINNING TO MOVE W AND LEAVING THE LOW
BEHIND. THE WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 26N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE ABOVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N24W 13N32W 10N38W 10N45W 9N50W
8N60W. SEE SPACIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 6N FROM 22W-27W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE HIGHLIGHT TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE 1006 MB LOW ALONG THE
N COAST OF THE YUCATAN AS DESCRIBED IN THE SPACIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. A MID/UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE W GULF NEAR 26N93W IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF S OF
27N. AN UPPER HIGH IS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER HIGH IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS GIVING MOST OF THE W
CARIBBEAN WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY W OF 78W. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC LAST NIGHT IS BECOMING A CUT-OFF
ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDING ACROSS PUERTO RICO SW TO NEAR
13N75W. FOR THE MOST PART...DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE E
CARIBBEAN WITH SOME LINGERING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI
MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM OFF THE N COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N78W TO OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DIPS S OF THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 70W WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR 32N70W
TO 28N76W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W NE TO BEYOND
32N63W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ENE TO 30N60W
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER LOW/HIGH/LOW WITH MODERATELY DRY
STABLE AIR AND A SURFACE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025
MB HIGH NEAR 33N32W. THIS IS GIVING THE ATLC E OF 60W FAIR
WEATHER CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

$$
WALLACE




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