[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130455
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1006 MB LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 26W/27W S
OF 18N...IS LOCATED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12N MOVING
W 15 KT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE E OF THE CONVECTION.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
29W-33W.

. ...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS IS A
WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE. THE CONVECTION WITH THE ABOVE WAVE/LOW
IS BEGINNING TO OVERRUN THE INVERTED-V CURVATURE. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS NOTED WITH A BETTER DEFINED MID
LEVEL ROTATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-12N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W/79W S OF 18N
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS MASKED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES.

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 87W/88W
S OF 23N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS MASKED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W 10N32W 8N52W 9N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF W
AFRICA FROM 13N-17N E OF 19W AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 28W-33W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE E GULF DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT CENTERED
NEAR 25N86W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
ALONG THE E GULF COAST E OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AROUND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO ACROSS CUBA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 225 NM OF THE UPPER LOW. THE W GULF REMAINS DRY TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH
S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 84W. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA/HONDURAS N TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA WITH
ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 15N80W
20N80W TO 22N85W AND A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE ENTIRE W CARIBBEAN W OF 76W. AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
THROUGH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SW TO 14N70W. THIS
HAS DRIED OUT THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO
NEAR 32N73W ESSENTIALLY DRYING OUT THE W ATLC WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND WITHIN
75 NM ALONG THE N COAST W OF 77W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N47W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR
26N51W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 57W-63W. AN UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC EXTENDING E/W FROM OVER AFRICA NEAR
25N15W TO NEAR 20N43W. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS IN THE NE ATLC NW OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N20W. DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE ATLC E
OF 55W WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1025 MB HIGH
S OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N30W SW THROUGH A 1020 MB HIGH S OF
BERMUDA NEAR 27N64W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

$$
WALLACE


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