[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W S OF
20N MOVING W 15-20 KT.  A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N20W.  GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 20W-24W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT.  NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NOTED.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NOTED.

A CARIBBEAN HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 22N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED N
OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 69W-72W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N VENEZUELA FROM
10N-12N BETWEEN 68W-72W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT.  THIS WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24.5N79W.  DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW... AND SURFACE FLOW FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE...ARE
PRODUCING NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 77W-82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-23N
BETWEEN 73W-77W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-23N
BETWEEN 79W-83W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 10N25W 10N60W.  BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 36W-45W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 27N91W.  5-10 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 84W-89W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA
FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 81W-84W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-82W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 87W-91W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N99W MOVING
W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 18N89W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 24.5N79W.  EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN GULF E OF 90W...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 24N
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 79W IS BY FAR THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE.  SEE
ABOVE.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N VENEZUELA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
63W-67W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 75W-78W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA
RICA TO HONDURAS FROM 8N-16N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N89W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24.5N79W.
BOTH SYSTEMS ARE PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W.  EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N35W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAHAMAS
ALONG 28N55W 27N78W.  WINDS FROM 20N-30N ARE ELY 10-15 KT.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 24.5N79W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 70W.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N48W.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N33W.  EXPECT
CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA


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