[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WEAK
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SLIGHT LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE
JUST N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N23W TO 12N28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE WITH SLIGHT LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE
JUST N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF
THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 37W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 25N MOVING W 15 KT. HIGH
AMPLITUDE WAVE REMAINS STRETCHED WITH WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V CURVATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 58W-62W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
22N-25N BETWEEN 60W-63W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE THAT IS BENEATH AN UPPER HIGH MASKING
SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH POSITION BASED ON CONTINUITY. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WAVE INVERTED-V
CURVATURE IS OBSCURED BY AN UPPER LOW THAT IS OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WITH POSITION BASED ON CONTINUITY. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 11N24W 10N38W 12N60W THEN
BECOMING DISTORTED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE SW
COAST OF AFRICA WITHIN 75/90 NM OF A LINE FROM 5N10W TO 10N20W.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 49W-60W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE EXTENDING OVER THE
GULF N OF 27N AND AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W COVERS THE S GULF S OF 26N E OF 94W. A
WEAK SURFACE REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SE US GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST
MOVING TO WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND THE ALABAMA COAST WITH HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING THE N
GULF COAST N OF 27N E OF THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS UNDER RELATIVELY DRY STABLE AIR
WITH A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N90W. THUS THE GULF
IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH SOME
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS
E OF 84W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE N COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W COVERING THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND
EXTENDING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 82W GENERATING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREA. A
PAIR OF UPPER HIGHS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED NEAR 16N78W AND 15N68W. BENEATH THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH
IS THE S PORTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 14N80W
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE SW ATLC PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 68W-81W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS S PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND WITH SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING INTO THE FAR S CARIBBEAN. THUS
THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY ACTIVE AGAIN THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 75W. A BROADENING UPPER
LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC COVERING THE AREA FROM OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS TO 31N BETWEEN 66W-75W PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N FROM PUERTO RICO TO E
CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N76W
ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W
INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N30W ALONG 27N42W TO 21N55W WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE E ATLC E OF 30W. DRY STABLE AIR
DOMINATES THE ATLC SO THAT NEITHER FEATURE IS ABLE TO GENERATE
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A VERY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES
THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1024 MB HIGH
SW OF THE AZORES AND N OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N41W TO A 1022 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N45W CONTINUING SW TO THE W ATLC NEAR 26N75W.

$$
WALLACE





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