[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE WITH SLIGHT LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE
JUST N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 34W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 25N MOVING W 20 KT. HIGH
AMPLITUDE WAVE REMAINS STRETCHED AND CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT WELL
DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-17N
BETWEEN 54W-59W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE THAT IS BENEATH AN UPPER HIGH MASKING
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. BASED ON THE UPPER AIR DATA...THIS WAVE IS
VERY SHALLOW WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-15N W OF 81W TO
INLAND OVER NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 10N33W 12N54W BECOMING
DISTORTED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND SURFACE TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES THE CARIBBEAN/SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE AXIS E OF
20W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
GUINEA AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 7N45W TO 5N52W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE FAR E TENNESSEE/THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS EXTENDING OVER THE E GULF E OF 92W. AN UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE W GULF EXTENDING JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO/TEXAS WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION JUST ALONG THE SW COAST OF MEXICO. THE GULF REMAINS UNDER
RELATIVELY DRY STABLE AIR WITH A 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 28N91W. THUS THE GULF IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE AGAIN
THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OFF THE W COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 24N-28N E OF 85W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR
13N73W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR S BELIZE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH A SMALL UPPER LOW JUST NE OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS TO A SECOND SMALL UPPER LOW OVER W CUBA NEAR
22N83W CLIPPING THE N CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
JUST W OF THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 13N72W ACROSS S HAITI AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE SW ATLC PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF A LINE FROM
14N68W ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO E CUBA NEAR 20N75W. TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 62W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS INTO THE REGION JUST E OF BERMUDA THROUGH A SMALL UPPER
LOW NEAR 29N67W SW TO AN UPPER LOW JUST NE OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS NEAR 24N73W THEN W CONTINUING TO THE UPPER LOW OVER W
CUBA CLIPPING THE N CARIBBEAN. THIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 30N59W TO 22N71W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO NEAR 26N73W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N FROM 70W-76W. AN UPPER HIGH IN
THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS THE RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO 30N59W. A
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH
32N48W SW TO 20N54W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NE
ATLC S TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 25W WITH AN UPPER LOW
REMAINING OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE
ATLC E OF 55W WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH W OF THE AZORES WELL N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE





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