[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE WITH SLIGHT LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE
JUST N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 33W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 25N MOVING W 20 KT. HIGH
AMPLITUDE WAVE REMAINS STRETCHED AND CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT WELL
DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM
OF A LINE FROM 15N51W TO 19N56W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE THAT IS BENEATH AN UPPER HIGH MASKING
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. BASED ON THE UPPER AIR DATA...THIS WAVE IS
VERY SHALLOW WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE
LOCATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH
THE TYPICAL LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 12N27W 9N38W 12N52W BECOMING
DISTORTED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND SURFACE TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES THE CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF THE AXIS E OF
18W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 5.5N FROM 45W-50W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE FAR E TENNESSEE MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS GIVING THE E GULF E UPPER FLOW. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO/TEXAS WITH THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SW MEXICO NEAR 19N98W GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF SE UPPER FLOW DRAWING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 95W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS UNDER DRY STABLE AIR AND A 1016 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N92W. THUS THE GULF IS MOSTLY CLOUD
AND SHOWER FREE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...REMNANTS OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR
14N67W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR BELIZE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH A SMALL UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE TURKS
AND CAICOS TO A SECOND SMALL UPPER LOW OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N83W
CLIPPING THE N CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ABC
ISLANDS NEAR 12N69W ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW ATLC PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM 15N68W
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO.
THE DRY AIR THAT HAS CONTROLLED THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS BEGINNING TO RELEASE ITS HOLD WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 70W AND INT HE GULF OF HONDURAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 68W. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS INTO THE REGION E OF BERMUDA THROUGH A SMALL UPPER LOW
NEAR 30N65W SW TO AN UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
NEAR 24N73W THEN W CONTINUING TO THE UPPER LOW OVER W CUBA
CLIPPING THE N CARIBBEAN. THIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM
30N60W TO 24N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W TO NEAR 26N71W
GENERATING SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N FROM 67W-74W.
AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS THE RIDGE AXIS NE
ACROSS PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO
31N58W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH
32N47W SW TO 21N58W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NE
ATLC S TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 25W WITH AN UPPER LOW
REMAINING OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. DRY SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR
DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES WELL N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE


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