[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION ALONG THE AXIS
WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 23N49W TO 8N43W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE REMAINS STRETCHED AND CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 6N-17N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE WITH POSITION BASED ON CONTINUITY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. EXACT
WAVE POSITION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DUE THE ABUNDANCE OF
DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N14W 10N24W 9N35W 13N48W 12N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM
OF LINE FROM 12N38W TO 14N43W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE FAR E TENNESSEE GIVING MOST OF
THE GULF N OF 26N E UPPER FLOW. THE SW GULF IS DOMINATED BY A
SMALL UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W. THE
GULF REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR AND A 1016 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N90W...THUS THE GULF IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND
SHOWER FREE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE S GULF FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 85W-93W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED JUST W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR
13N65W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO
OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 15N82W. THE W CARIBBEAN HAS
UPPER S FLOW DUE TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS
COMBINATION IS PRODUCING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N
FROM 75W-85W. AN UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS DIPS S
TO OVER HISPANIOLA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 12N66W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE
INTO THE SW ATLC PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/ STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES
NEAR 13N61W ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE SW ATLC. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS CONTROLLED BY DRY STABLE AIR AND REMAINS
MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF
17N FROM 71W-81W AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE
COAST OF CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER TENNESSEE EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLC N OF 25N W OF 68W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE REGION
E OF BERMUDA THROUGH 32N63W SSW TO AN UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 23N71W CONTINUING TO JUST OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N66W THROUGH THE
MONA PASSAGE INTO THE SW ATLC TO NEAR 24N66W PRODUCING CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF A LINE FROM
THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 19N68W INTO THE SW ATLC TO NEAR 24N65W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NE
WITHIN 150 NM TO 32N58W. DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC W OF 65W. AN UPPER HIGH IS JUST W OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 13N65W EXTENDING THE RIDGE AXIS NE TO 28N51W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N45W S TO
16N47W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC S OVER THE FAR
E ATLC N OF 23N E OF 30W WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS. DRY SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH W OF
THE AZORES WELL N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE





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