[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 14N MOVING W 5-10 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN THE
ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 22N46W TO 5N42W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE HAS BECOME STRETCHED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
AND CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V
CURVATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 75
NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 43W-48W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE WITH POSITION BASED ON CONTINUITY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. EXACT
WAVE POSITION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DUE THE ABUNDANCE OF
DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 11N27W 8N36W 12N49W 13N61W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF 2N FROM 39W-42W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE E TENNESSEE GIVING MOST OF THE
GULF E UPPER FLOW EXCEPT OVER THE SW GULF WHERE A SMALL UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. THE GULF IS
CONTROLLED BY DRY STABLE AIR AND A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 27N92W...THUS THE GULF IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS OFF THE SW
FLORIDA PENINSULA...REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED JUST W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR
13N64W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO
OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 15N82W. THE W CARIBBEAN HAS
UPPER S FLOW DUE TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS
COMBINATION IS PRODUCING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
77W-80W. AN UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS DIPS S TO
OVER HISPANIOLA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 13N64W ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE SW ATLC
NEAR 23N65W PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/200 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
INCLUDING THE N WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
ACROSS PANAMA AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ARE
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N
FROM 78W-83W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS CONTROLLED BY
DRY STABLE AIR AND REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE AGAIN
TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER TENNESSEE EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLC N OF 26N W OF 68W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE REGION
E OF BERMUDA THROUGH 32N63W SSW TO AN UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N69W CONTINUING TO JUST OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N65W ACROSS
PUERTO RICO INTO THE E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 57W-67W. DRY STABLE
AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 67W. AN UPPER
HIGH IS JUST W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N64W EXTENDING THE
RIDGE AXIS NE TO 27N52W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N45W S TO 15N45W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N37W TO 14N43W. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC S OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF
23N E OF 30W WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. DRY
SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES
WELL N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE




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