[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION JUST TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS
WITHIN THE ITCZ. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 20N39W TO 7N36W MOVING W 15 KT.
THE N PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS MOVING NW AND IS DEPICTED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC SECTION BELOW. WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE AS WELL AS A
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
36W-40W AND SIMILAR CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE WITH POSITION BASED ON CONTINUITY. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. EXACT
WAVE POSITION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DUE THE ABUNDANCE OF
DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA BETWEEN 69W-72W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W S OF 23N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A
WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER MEXICO ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
19N. WAVE IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH A MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC ROTATION REMAINING OVER SW MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF A
LINE FROM 18N92W TO 24N98W ARE BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER HIGH
THAT IS ALONG THE COAST OF NEAR 21N97W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N15W 11N30W 12N42W 10N52W 11N58W
10N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 30W-45W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE IS GIVING THE E GULF
NE TO E UPPER FLOW WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED
BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W.
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER HIGH ENHANCING ACTIVITY
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
CONTROLLED BY DRY STABLE AIR AND A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 27N88W...THUS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS MOSTLY
CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN TO JUST OFF
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WHERE A WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS N TO OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S
TO OVER HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-20N E OF 67W
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC. CONVERGENCE
OF UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 17N TO OVER HAITI AND E CUBA BETWEEN 72W-81W INCLUDING AND
JAMAICA. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA
ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND COUPLED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA
W OF 65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS CONTROLLED BY DRY
STABLE AIR AND REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE AGAIN
TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER TENNESSEE EXTENDS INTO THE W
ATLC N OF 25N W OF 72W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE REGION
E OF BERMUDA THROUGH 32N64W SW TO JUST OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
WITH AN UPPER LOW EMBEDDED NEAR 22N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 32N69W THROUGH A WEAK 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N72W TO
OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N77W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH
N OF 20N BETWEEN 26W-64W. DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC W OF 65W. AN UPPER HIGH IS JUST E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 12N57W EXTENDING THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE S
CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING A SECOND RIDGE AXIS N TO BEYOND 32N52W.
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER HIGH AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
W ATLC IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 58W-64W. AN UPPER
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N45W S TO 24N47W
AND IS ENTRAINING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N40W TO
32N38W...THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY PART OF A TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 23N. AN
UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 25N33W. DRY SOMEWHAT
STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH WSW OF THE AZORES NEAR
37N35W.

$$
WALLACE




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