[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061024
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V CURVATURE. ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE WITH POSITION BASED ON CONTINUITY. ANY
SHOWERS/CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
IS NOW E OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXACT WAVE POSITION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE DUE THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY STABLE AIR. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N ACROSS PUERTO RICO
TO 20N BETWEEN 65W-67W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW/MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OVER S MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
BROAD WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE S GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE S GULF AND S MEXICO INCLUDING THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N FROM 90W-97W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 9N21W 12N33W 10N41W 11N50W
10N58W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90
NM OF 11N FROM 22W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM
31W-51W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS GIVING THE
E GULF NE TO E UPPER FLOW WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE
YUCATAN NEAR 21N91W. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER
HIGH ENHANCING ACTIVITY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF IS CONTROLLED BY DRY STABLE AIR AND A WEAK 1018 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N86W...THUS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE
NE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 16N65W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-18N FROM OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO
THE W TROPICAL ATLC. CONVERGENCE OF UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 73W-79W
INCLUDING SW HAITI AND JAMAICA. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS N
PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL
AMERICA W OF THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 68W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF NE VENEZUELA FROM 65W
TO OVER TRINIDAD. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS CONTROLLED
BY DRY STABLE AIR AND REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE THIS
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 29N W OF 73W. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA SW INTO THE REGION TO NEAR 26N74W. AT
06/0900 UTC  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N72W THROUGH A WEAK
1012 MB CENTERED NEAR 29N74W TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
26N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 31N70W ALONG 26N76W TO THE FLORIDA
COAST BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND FORT LAUDERDALE. DRY STABLE
AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 65W. AN UPPER LOW
IS N THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 21N63W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 16N65W AND IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM 14N-24N BETWEEN 58W-62W. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N53W WITH A SECOND UPPER HIGH IN THE E ATLC
NEAR 25N30W INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH IN BETWEEN. DRY SOMEWHAT
STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH WSW OF THE AZORES NEAR
35N35W PRODUCING ONLY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE






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