[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060504
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. NARROW
HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH WITH LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION
FROM 13N-18N. ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 18N MOVING W 5-10 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WEAK WAVE WITH POSITION BASED ON CONTINUITY. ANY
SHOWERS/CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS OVER THE
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXACT WAVE POSITION IS DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE DUE THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY STABLE AIR. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OVER PUERTO RICO TO 21N BETWEEN
65W-68W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OVER S MEXICO WITH BROAD WELL
DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE S GULF OF MEXICO TO
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. HEAVY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN AND S MEXICO
INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N FROM 88W-95W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 12N32W 10N41W 11N56W 10N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF
10N FROM 21W-25W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 3N FROM 38W-41W. CLUSTERS
OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 28W-39W AND WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE FROM 8N42W TO 11N50W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS GIVING THE
E GULF NE TO E UPPER FLOW WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE N COAST OF THE
YUCATAN NEAR 22N88W. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER
HIGH ENHANCING ACTIVITY OVER THE YUCATAN AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS CONTROLLED BY DRY STABLE
AIR AND A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N86W...THUS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 81W. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-16N
E OF 65W TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. AFTERNOON HEAT INDUCED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA HAVE MOVED OFF THE SW COAST OF
HAITI TO JAMAICA COVERING THE AREA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 73W-77W.
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA
ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA
MOVING OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N FROM THE ABC ISLANDS TO
CENTRAL PANAMA. IN ADDITION THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC
ACROSS TRINIDAD AND NE VENEZUELA GENERATING SIMILAR ACTIVITY S
OF 12N FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS CONTROLLED BY DRY STABLE AIR AND REMAINS MOSTLY
CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 30N W OF 73W. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA INTO THE REGION TO NEAR 25N70W. A
WEAKENING 1014 MB IS TO THE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR 32N72W
EXTENDING A SURFACE TROUGH S TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
26N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 27N76W TO 30N71W. DRY STABLE AIR
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 70W. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM
15N-24N BETWEEN 58W-62W. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 24N53W WITH A SECOND UPPER HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 23N29W
INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH IN BETWEEN. DRY SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N35W
PRODUCING ONLY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net