[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051820
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W
SOUTH OF 24N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT.  THIS WAVE SHOWS A LARGE
WELL DEFINED AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ON THE ITCZ.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 25W-31W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 15 KT.  THIS WEAK WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND IS
MOVED BY CONTINUITY.  PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
62W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT.  THIS LARGE-SCALE WAVE
SHOWS UP WELL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS
WAVE HOWEVER...IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
20N61W.  BOTH FEATURES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN
57W-62W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FURTHER S OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLAND DUE TO THE WAVE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 61W-66W.

A STRONG CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W S OF 22N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ABOVE THIS
WAVE.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 84W-87W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 87W-91W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N30W 9N40W 8N50W 11N62W.
OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 18W-23W...AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 31W-40W.

DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 27N92W.  A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  SEE ABOVE.  5 TO
10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE GULF.  A SMALL PATCH OF
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN
30 NM OF 20N95W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W.  ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS S OF 28N.  SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS S OF 25N BETWEEN
83W-96W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF
26N AND E OF 92W.  EXPECT SHOWERS OVER N FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF W OF 94W
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.  SEE ABOVE.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM
9N-11N BETWEEN 77W-82W.  LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED
WITH 20 KT WINDS N OF N COLOMBIA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  ELY UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N75W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 28N79W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN
69W-72W.  A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
34N36W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO
27N55W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NLY FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N
OF 20N AND W OF 65W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS E OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 16N54W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE TO
30N50W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E NEAR
18N43W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
CENTERED NEAR 25N28W.

$$
FORMOSA


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