[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W
SOUTH OF 25N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS A LARGE
WELL DEFINED AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N
BETWEEN 24W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WEAK WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS
IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OF THE LARGER WAVES TO THE EAST AND
WEST. STABLE AIR AND BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SURROUND THIS
WAVE. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
60W/61W SOUTH OF 25N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS LARGE-SCALE
WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE NORTHERN PART OF
THIS WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH AN AREA ALREADY OCCUPIED BY THE
26N67W 20N60W EAST CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
CARIBBEAN SEA PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 10 TO 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 12N63W 13N65W. THE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG PRECIPITATION FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W
ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH.

A STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN HONDURAS AND
EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WEST NEARLY
20 KT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTHERN BELIZE
FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 88W AND 89W...AND ALONG THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA BETWEEN 88W AND 93W.
PRECIPITATION IN OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
DIMINISHED AND WEAKENED...LEAVING MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS SOUTH OF 26N WEST OF 80W.

THE NORTHERN PART OF A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 98W/99W FROM
MEXICO SOUTHWARD. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING
PRECIPITATION ARE BETWEEN 94W AND 97W FROM THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC WESTWARD.

...THE ITCZ...
14N15W 10N28W 9N32W 9N43W 8N46W 9N53W 12N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
90 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N17W 10N30W 8N40W 9N46W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
9N46W 17N60W.

DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
INTERIOR MEXICO NOW NEAR 26N105W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER WAS OVER
SOUTH TEXAS ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
21N TO 25N BETWEEN 103W AND 107W...AND SOME ARE WEAKENING WITH
TIME. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
ORIGINALLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 24 HOURS AGO NOW IS IN
MEXICO NEAR 18N101W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE CENTRAL
GULF WATERS TO THE EAST WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N80W
27N90W...AND WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N90W 24N94W
21N97W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 80W AND 95W.
A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N86W. WEAK AND BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN HONDURAS AND EL
SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WEST NEARLY
20 KT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTHERN
BELIZE FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 88W AND 89W...AND ALONG THE
PACIFIC COASTS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA BETWEEN 88W AND
93W. PRECIPITATION IN OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
HAS DIMINISHED AND WEAKENED...LEAVING MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS SOUTH OF 26N WEST OF 80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS MOVING ANTICYCLONICALLY INTO THE AREA...TO THE WEST
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS LIKELY IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN APPROACHES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 10 TO 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N75W TO 29N80W...AND TO THE FLORIDA COAST
NEAR 28N/29W ALONG 80W/81W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N86W...THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND BEYOND 32N65W NEAR BERMUDA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
26N57W TO 20N60W TO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG PRECIPITATION FROM
17N TO 27N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N32W
TO 20N40W TO 15N44W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N10W TO 27N14W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N36W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 60W/61W TROPICAL WAVE.

$$
MT



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