[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS ALONG 25W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE WELL DEFINED AREA OF CYCLONIC
TURNING IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MOST PRONOUNCED
ROTATION IS NOW PUSHING JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL NEAR THIS ROTATION THOUGH. THE MORE
PERSISTENT SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ACROSS THE
SRN PORTION OF THE WAVE AND THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ FROM
7N-12N BETWEEN 22W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WEAK WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW OF THE LARGER WAVES TO IT'S E AND W. STABLE AIR AND BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SURROUND THIS FEATURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS NEAR THE AXIS S OF 12N ARE MORE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ.

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
THIS LARGE-SCALE WAVE REMAINS FAIRLY EASILY SEEN WITH A
PRONOUNCED INVERTED-V SHAPE NOTED IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
FIELD. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL WITH THIS
WAVE...THE FEATURE HAS GAINED MOISTURE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS
IT IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N59W. THIS IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N
WITHIN 250NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 85W S OF 24N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SINCE
THE WAVE IS MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FROM
13N-22N W OF 79W. A RECENT FLARE UP OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE GUANACASTE REGION OF COSTA RICA.

THE NRN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W EXTENDS ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS
WEAK WITH THE CURRENT PSN BASED MOSTLY ON A MODEST WWD SURGE OF
MOISTURE NOTED ON THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT. SOME OF THE MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE ROTATING MORE NW AROUND THE RIDGING OVER THE GULF.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVERALL MINIMAL.

...THE ITCZ...
16N15W 11N26W 10N40W 16N56W. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION
DISCUSSED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 11N-14N E OF 19W.
SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120NM N/150NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
30W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 46W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
INTERIOR MEXICO NOW NEAR 25N104W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER WAS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN MEXICO FROM 20N
TO 29N BETWEEN 102W AND 108W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER ORIGINALLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
24  HOURS AGO NOW IS IN MEXICO NEAR 19N99W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL
WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE EAST WITHIN
100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N96W 25N92W 27N82W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE
WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH
OF 26N BETWEEN 80W AND 95W. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM A 1020 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 28N71W TO 27N88W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
SOUTHWARD OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS FROM WESTERN NICARAGUA
TO EL SALVADOR. OTHER AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 11N WEST OF 82W...INCLUDING LAND
AREASNORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...SOUTHERN BELIZE...AND THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS MOVING ANTICYCLONICALLY INTO THE AREA...TO THE WEST OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 17N73W 15N69W 15N60W ALONG THE
TROUGH. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS LIKELY IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LARGE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN APPROACHES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 19N86W...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND BEYOND
32N65W NEAR BERMUDA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N57W TO 20N60W
TO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N62W 21N58W 27N55W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N32W
TO 20N40W TO 15N44W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N12W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 28N15W. AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N36W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 59W
TROPICAL WAVE.

$$
MT




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