[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041104
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE. ITCZ WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. ITCZ ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 11N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W SOUTH OF 25N
MOVING 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN
52W AND 58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN
55W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 51W AND
54W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING
ONE CELL OF STRONG PRECIPITATION AT THE EASTERN END OF
HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W FROM THE WATERS OFF THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTHWARD. EARLIER CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED.

...THE ITCZ...
13N17W 12N25W 9N36W 9N41W 10N53W 10N57W 9N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
6N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 17W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
6N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERNMOST
TIP OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTHWEST OF 29N85W
25N95W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TAKING UP
MUCH MORE SPACE THAN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE-TO-SOUTH TEXAS
TROUGH...IS ALONG THE LINE FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA
TO 23N88W TO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N97W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW STILL COVERS
MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE EARLIER YUCATAN
PENINSULA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER STILL IS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W
FROM CUBA SOUTHWARD TO PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 80W...
INCLUDING ONE CELL OF STRONG PRECIPITATION AT THE EASTERN END
OF HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO
11N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...THE
80W TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ALREADY...THE
ITCZ...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE GULF OF URABA.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
ARE SOUTH OF 11N TO PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ANCHORED FIRMLY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA...WITH A BASE NEAR 13N62W. SURFACE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW
EXISTS EAST OF 75W WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN CLUSTERS OF LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS IN GENERAL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N WEST
OF 60W...WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH 31N56W
TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N58W TO 18N60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...AND NORTH
OF 30N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW NEAR THE RIDGE AND TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 75W AND
80W...SOUTH OF A 33N70W 32N78W 32N85W STATIONARY FRONT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N44W TO 22N45W. BROAD AND WEAK
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN
20W AND 40W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO
26N19W...FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO THE CANARY ISLANDS.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE PORTUGAL COAST TO THE MOROCCO COAST NEAR
28N/29N.

$$
MT


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