[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040607
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE. ITCZ WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ITCZ WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 12N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26N53W 15N55W TO
FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 51W AND
53W...AND FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
14N TO 17N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W...AND FROM HONDURAS NEAR 15N TO
19N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 79W AND 87W FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W FROM THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN
CHANNEL SOUTHWARD. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED INLAND FROM
THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO EAST CENTRAL GUATEMALA. EARLIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
13N23W 10N34W 10N41W 13N52W.  ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS-TO-LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT PASSES OVER
BERMUDA TO 32N70W TO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...TO A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N87W...TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 95W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ENTERING
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AROUND THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDS
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT NOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
IN THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N80W. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 80W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
14N TO 17N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W...AND FROM HONDURAS NEAR 15N TO
19N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 79W AND 87W FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W IN BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...THE 80W TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA ALREADY...THE ITCZ...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 24N58W TO 19N60W TO 14N61W. SURFACE EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW EXISTS EAST OF 75W WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN CLUSTERS OF
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS IN GENERAL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N WEST
OF 60W...WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 31N57W 24N58W 19N60W
TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W
AND 66W IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR THE RIDGE
AND TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS  TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...SOUTH OF
A 31N85W 33N76W 33N70W STATIONARY FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 26N46W. BROAD AND WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO 26N18W...FROM
THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG
THE PORTUGAL COAST TO THE MOROCCO COAST NEAR 28N/29N.

$$
MT




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