[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030617
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IS NEAR 16N33W. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION REALLY SEEMS
TO BE RELATED ONLY TO THE ITCZ AND NOT THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 24N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N
TO 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N68W TO A 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 14N69W...INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA
ALONG 69W. A FEW CELLS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM
FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. RAWINSONDE DATA FROM THE LAST 12 TO 24 HOURS
SHOW THAT THIS WAVE PASSED JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
ALREADY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE BAHAMAS SOUTH OF 25N
WEST OF 77W IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN END OF THIS WAVE.
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NOTED WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS
OF 23.5N80W JUST OFF CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN
81W AND 86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W/95W
SOUTH OF 20N...CUTTING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC/GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ALREADY-DISSIPATED
PRECIPITATION FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W.

...THE ITCZ...
14N16W 11N21W 10N29W 10N34W 13N46W 12N50W 10N56W 11N65W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 25W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
30W...FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W...AND FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN 55W AND 59W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT PASSES OVER BERMUDA TO 32N70W
TO 31N78W...STILL PROBABLY CONNECTING TO A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO A 1010 MB NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N87W...TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST/
LOUISIANA BORDER WITH TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH
OF 26N EAST OF 96W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
AROUND THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVERYWHERE
WEST OF 74W. THE 83W/84W TROPICAL WAVE IS SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BAHAMAS/STRAITS OF FLORIDA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA EAST OF 74W DUE TO A 16N66W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS MOVING FROM SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...STAYING SOUTH OF 16N...AND
APPROACHING THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE 16N66W
ANTICYCLONE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT PASSES OVER BERMUDA TO 32N70W
TO 31N78W...STILL PROBABLY CONNECTING TO A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO A 1010 MB NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N87W...TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST/
LOUISIANA BORDER WITH TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 32N TO 33N BETWEEN 59W AND 68W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 68W AND
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS
FROM A 31N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N56W AND 18N58W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A 31N16W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 27N28W TO 27N37W.
A BROAD TROUGH EXISTS FROM THE SURFACE/LOW LEVELS TO THE MIDDLE
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 16N16W TO
JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 11N30W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 36N35W THROUGH
32N47W TO 30N53W 26N67W TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

$$
MT


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