[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W/67W WITH A 1011 MB
LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N MOVING RAPIDLY W NEAR 20 KT. AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND A LOW LEVEL CENTER
AND WIND SPEEDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN A DAY OR TWO WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE W
CARIBBEAN. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA FROM THE ABC ISLANDS TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE W MOVING OVER CUBA AND JAMAICA ON FRIDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK
INVERTED-V MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 23N40W THROUGH A WEAK 1012 MB LOW
NEAR 12N45W TO 6N45W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE
LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 38W-52W.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N12N BETWEEN 39W-47W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 19N
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER
DRY STABLE AIR WITH A NARROW LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION ALONG 89W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH
ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER/CONVECTION INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N15W 11N24W 14N41W 9N48W 13N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF W AFRICA FROM
12N19N E OF 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120/150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 51W-55W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
13W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E US DIPPING TO THE N GULF
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW ALABAMA TO ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA TO NEAR 27N90W. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GEORGIA COAST ACROSS NE FLORIDA
TO A 1012 MB LOW IS IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W TO THE CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N92W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 26N FROM FLORIDA
TO TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS SE TEXAS ALONG 26N97W TO ACROSS
THE FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THUS DRYING OUT THE S GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR INFORMATION ON THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO IS INDUCING AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDING E/W FROM
16N78W TO THE TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. A MID/UPPER HIGH IS IN
THE E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT OUT FLOW FOR THE TROPICAL
WAVE/LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 14N W OF 73W WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEING GENERATED OVER THAT AREA.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE E US INTO THE N GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ACROSS BERMUDA TO
31N70W WHERE IS CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 31N78W.
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
90/120 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE W
ATLC THEN NE TO 31N65W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ABOVE AND
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N
BETWEEN 77W-81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY
BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES MOSTLY DUE TO THE DRY STABLE AIR
THAT COVERS THE ATLC E OF 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB JUST SW OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE


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