[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020611
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N60W. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DID NOT
FIND A LOW LEVEL CENTER DURING ITS LAST FLIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST ABOUT 15 KT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO ANY LAND OR SEA AREAS ALONG ITS PATH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 5 TO 10 KT. THIS WAVE JUST PASSED THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN
25W AND 30W.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM 18N39W TO 18N42W TO 10N42W.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITH THIS WAVE.

ONE TROPICAL WAVE JUST CROSSED 70W FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
SOUTHWARD. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 21N.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
13N16W 12N23W 11N28W 9N39W 8N44W 12N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 24W AND 40W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 90W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS PART OF THE
LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE U.S.A. NORTH OF 30N EAST OF
90W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO 28N85W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 27N79W...
ACROSS FLORIDA JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TO A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N87W...TO A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TO 28N92W THE UPPER TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N95W.
A SURFACE RIDGE POKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N83W...NORTHWESTWARD TO 27N94W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT FOR THE SMALLER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
SOUTH OF 16N EAST OF 70W. ONE TROPICAL WAVE JUST CROSSED 70W
FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 21N. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES EITHER TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 20N TO CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 81W ARE
RELATED TO THE LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF
7N75W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN WESTERN VENEZUELA AND 75W.
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N60W. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 59W AND 62W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N73W TO
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 29N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 29N79W BEYOND
31N70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 31N53W. A BIG RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN A 33N27W NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...AND THE 31N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 26N58W TO 25N67W.

$$
MT


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