[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N57W IS ABOUT 200 NM E OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS.  THE LOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS PRESENTLY
ENROUTE TO THE LOW CENTER.  WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO
NOT APPEAR ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS STILL
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING SQUALLS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 23W S OF 22N
MOVING W 10 KT.  A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
14N23W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN
20W-22W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S
ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 18W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 17N MOVING W 12 KT.  SOME
CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR 13N40W.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED
TO THE ITCZ.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 34W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W MOVING W 15-20
KT.  SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN THE LOW CLOUD PATTERN S
OF PUERTO RICO.  A LINE OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM TRINIDAD TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 10N62W 18N70W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W S OF 21N
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
JAMAICA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 75W-77W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 12N30W 11N40W 12N50W 11N60W.
EXCEPT AS NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
ABOVE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 12W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR
30N88W.  A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA ALONG 29N84W 29N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 82W-88W.
FURTHER W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
OF LOUISIANA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 91W-94W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SW TEXAS NEAR
30N101W.  NELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO W
OF 90W.  THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN GULF
OF MEXICO PRODUCING NWLY FLOW E OF 90W.  CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WHERE SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.  EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION N OF 24N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1010 MB LOW IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND TWO
TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SEE ABOVE.
TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONGEST WINDS OF
20-25 KT N OF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 82W-85W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
80W-84W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
N OF COLOMBIA NEAR 14N71W.  CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  A PATCH OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 72W-80W.  EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N70W 29N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90NM OF THE FRONT.  A
DOMINATE 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 39N36W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO
25N70W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 30N50W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CENTERED NEAR
14N52W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA








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