[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N27W 3N38W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 50W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N
BETWEEN 12W-14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS
FROM 14W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO OVER TEXAS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OF YESTERDAY
CONTINUE TO SPREAD UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR W
GULF FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO TEXAS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE NE GULF EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC N OF 25N E OF 88W.
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE SE US AND GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED
BY A 1021 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THIS COUPLED
WITH DRY AIR IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BANKING
ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO COAST DUE TO RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF
FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH
AN UPPER E/W RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE W
CARIBBEAN WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS E CUBA NEAR
21N78W TO 13N83W. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 18N FROM 80W-84W TO INLAND OVER COSTA RICA
AND NICARAGUA. DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS USHERING IN SOME
LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF
67W.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 60W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N65W
TO 29N69W AND A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N72W
ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N78W. THIS IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N-27N INCLUDING THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS. A BENIGN CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 26N41W COVERING THE AREA N OF 22N FROM 35W-50W. THIS UPPER
LOW REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME VERY DRY AIR THAT DOMINATES
MOST OF THE ATLC AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NE ATLC DIPPING S TO OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE
REGION. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY
A 1030 MB HIGH JUST SW OF THE AZORES. THIS SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE IS GIVING MOST OF THE ATLC FAIR
WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING.

$$
WALLACE






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