[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N25W 3N35W 2N51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS E OF 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 40 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-40W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER NE BRAZIL AND LIBERIA IN AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF AND THE SE US...INCLUDING THE
STATE OF FLORIDA REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THIS EVENING THANKS TO A
SFC RIDGING DOMINATING. AS OF 29/2100 UTC...A 1021 MB HIGH WAS
LOCATED OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N92W. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
N TO NE WINDS...AND SMALL WAVES ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WATERS E
OF 90W. SCATTERED CLOUD COVER IS OVER MUCH OF THE WRN GULF WITH
A BIT MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AROUND THE S AND SW PORTION OF THE
SFC RIDGE. ALOFT...A MID/UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION WITH
THE AXIS ALONG 94W...PARTICULARLY IN THE MID LEVELS. SLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF MON EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRES SLOWLY DRIFTS E ACROSS THE NRN GULF WATERS. THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAIRLY TAME THROUGH EARLY WEEK. THE
SLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF INTO TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/E CUBA WHERE IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...BUT MAINLY OVER
E CUBA. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/HAITI TOMORROW MORNING...THEN WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE MONDAY. A DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT
BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE THAT
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN IS SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT
TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WWD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ONE OF THEM IS CROSSING WITHIN 90 NM SOUTH OF JAMAICA...
WHERE SOME LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS NOTED. SIMILAR FRAGMENTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN...SOME OF WHICH ARE
ALSO AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA DUE TO
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC ITCZ AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE CARIB THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRES IS BUILDING INTO THE THE WRN ATLC BEHIND THE
SFC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N71W TO OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS/E CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. VERY DRY/STABLE AIR IS BEING
ADVECTED INTO THE WRN ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A JET STREAM
BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 70 TO 90 KT EXTENDS FROM THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH NEWD BEYOND 32N65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1028 MB
SFC HIGH LOCATED NEAR THE AZORES. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING A SWATH
OF 20 TO 25 KT NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE ATLC MAINLY E OF 53W. THESE
WINDS ARE CARRIED POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE OCEAN
INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND E CARIBBEAN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WRN ATLC WHILE MUCH STRONGER AND
LARGER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE E-CENTRAL ATLC.

OF NOTE...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A PLUME OF SMOKE
AFFECTING NE FLORIDA AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS...DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE LARGE WILDFIRES IN SE GEORGIA.

$$
GR




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