[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0415 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N11W 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 24W...AND THEN CONTINUING
TO 1S30W 2S36W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 5S42W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN
2W AND 6W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 7W AND 10W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM FRENCH GUIANA TO GUYANA
BETWEEN 54W AND 57W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 14N27W TO 7N32W TO 8N38W TO
8N44W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 300 NM
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 14N25W 7N32W...AND WITHIN 500 NM NORTH OF
7N32W 8N44W

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A.
IT IS PUSHING A MASS OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION FROM
EASTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NOW WEST OF 90W. THE DEEPER THE TROUGH IN THE U.S.A. MEANS THE
MORE AMPLIFIED THE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF
90W. THE COLD FRONT WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH STILL RUNS FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO JUST EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND.
A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TO THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N IN MEXICO TO 28N IN THE WATERS
OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 100W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT-BECOMING-SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE
HAS BEEN ANALYZED ON THE SURFACE MAPS SINCE 21/1800 UTC.
IT HAS BEEN IN AND AROUND PUERTO RICO EVER SINCE THE FRONT/
TROUGH SYSTEM DEVELOPED. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED
EARLIER THIS MORNING FOR THE AREAS OF HATILLO AND ARECIBO.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 21N59W TO 19N63W TO 18N65W. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
FROM 18N65W TO 17N68W TO 15N75W TO 15N78W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N69W 20N63W
22N58W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W
IN SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE TROUGH.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 9N60W 10N70W 11N80W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURVING FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS...AND EASTWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT
FROM A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N49W TO 29N50W 24N54W
TO 21N59W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N59W TO THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N42W TO 27N50W 24N54W TO
22N60W. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS PASSING OVER THE MADEIRAS ISLANDS TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE MADEIRAS ISLANDS TO 28N26W
TO 27N32W. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 27N32W TO 28N39W.
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N39W AND THE STATIONARY FRONT...
TO 29N43SW...AND TO THE 33N58W DEVELOPING GALE. THE FAR-EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE LAST DAYS
HAS BECOME SEPARATED...OR SPLIT APART OVER AFRICA. THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE TROUGH IS COMPLETELY OVER ALGERIA AND MALI. THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TROUGH NOW EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 17N17W TO 12N25W TO 9N34W 9N40W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.

$$
MT




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