[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N30W EQ50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 21W-37W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-5N BETWEEN 37W-46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 46W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND 10-15 KT ELY WINDS.  ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE MEXICAN COASTAL PLAIN S OF TAMPICO IS PRODUCING...
HOWEVER...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
FOG.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING MOSTLY WLY WINDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT COMPLETELY AND
PRODUCE CONTINUED WLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  EXPECT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER NE MEXICO AND S TEXAS W OF 96W WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS TRAVERSING PUERTO RICO AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 21N60W 17N68W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT.  A 1010 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR 9N72W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM
10N-12N BETWEEN 74W-77W.  10-15 KT WINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N77W.  MOSTLY WLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS S OF 13N.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXIT THE SEA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW TO PUERTO RICO
ALONG 32N45W 25N56W 18N66W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT.  A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 35N25W.   A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 18N50W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
50W-80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN
25W-50W.  ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E
OF 25W.  A WEAK TROPICAL JETSTREAM DEPICTED BY THIN BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM NE BRAZIL TO S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO
W AFRICA ALONG 4N50W 10N30W 17N10W.

$$
FORMOSA




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