[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192310
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N9W 5N18W 2N32W ALONG THE EQUATOR
FROM 44W-52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90/120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 12W-18W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF
A LINE FROM 1.5N4W TO 3N10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM SOUTH
AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO
AND OVER THE W GULF MOSTLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO 23N83W.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS
THE NE US INTO THE W ATLC AND THE GULF E OF 84W. DRY UPPER AIR
OVER FLORIDA IS LIMITING SHOWERS BUT LENDING TO THE FIRES
CURRENTLY BURNING IN THE EVERGLADES. LIGHT N TO WINDS DOMINATE
THE ENTIRE AREA. WEAK RIDGE IS BUILDING S FROM OVER THE E US
ENCOMPASSING THE GULF AND SHALL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA ANCHORED INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 10N70W INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 21N87W. WEAK 1007 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER NW
VENEZUELA GENERATING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN
45/60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA FROM 69W-76W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR TO THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND FLORIDA CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N E OF 50W. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE AGAIN TONIGHT IS THE LARGE 989 MB LOW WELL N
OF THE REGION WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DOES NOT
EXTEND INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH JUST SW OF BERMUDA
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1004 MB LOW NEAR
30N72W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR
25N80W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
120/150 NM OF A LINE FROM 22N54W TO BEYOND 32N42W. DRY AIR
COVERS THE W ATLC LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT
OVER THE BAHAMAS. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH A 1021 MB
HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N31W. DRY AIR DOMINATES THE E ATLC AS WELL
AS THE TROPICAL ATLC...LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PUSHING THE
ITCZ TO THE S.

$$
WALLACE


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