[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N22W 2N42W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 45W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS W OF
13W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
MOVING INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COMPLEX OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
WELL INLAND OVER E US WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...S MISSISSIPPI...AND SE LOUISIANA INTO
THE GULF NEAR 29N91W EXTENDING SW INLAND OVER S TEXAS NEAR
BROWNSVILLE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY TO NEAR 25N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
24N86W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR TAMPA TO DAYTONA
BEACH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
EARLIER IN EVENING. DRY AIR IS IN WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GULF TODAY AND
BEGIN TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE W ATLC ON FRI WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N77W WITH
DIFFLUENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER COSTA RICA AND SE NICARAGUA. SHOWERS
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA
MOVING E INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. DRY AIR
AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE REGION IS
DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N47W TO 30N57W WHERE
IT PULLS UP STATIONARY TO A 1009 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROAD DEEP LAYERED MOVING INTO THE W ATLC FROM THE E US AND GULF
OF MEXICO. THE 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N75W WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W INTO GEORGIA AND IS ATTACHED TO THE
OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE E US. THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THAT MOVED ACROSS FLORIDA EARLIER THIS EVENING FROM 27N-30N W OF
79W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH DIFFLUENCE TO
THE W GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
125 NM OF LINE FROM 25N75W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR
22N78W. THESE STORMS PRODUCED OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN NASSAU
EARLIER ON WED. BROAD UPPER LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO
AFRICA EXTENDS S TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 20W. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT ANCHORED
BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N26W AND EXTENDING S INTO THE TROPICS.
THIS IS GIVING THE ATLC E OF 60W FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND LITTLE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

$$
WALLACE



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