[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N9W 4N20W 2N30W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2S AT 49W. SCATTERED TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W...AND
BETWEEN 45W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 20W
AND 30W...AND SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO
20N102W IN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS ON TOP OF A SURFACE TROUGH
GOES FROM 22N101W BEYOND 32N106W IN FAR WEST TEXAS. THE SURFACE
TROUGH IS JUST TO THE WEST OF A LINGERING DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT FROM 20N99W TO 26N101W BEYOND 32N104W. A SURFACE 1014 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N95W A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT GOES FROM THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 20N96W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY TO
26N83W. THE 1014 MB LOW CENTER HAS NOT MOVED MUCH DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SURFACE FEATURE IS
WAITING FOR THE INLAND MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO CATCH UP TO ITS POSITION...AND THEN REINFORCE IT WITH SOME
EXTRA ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA. THE FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS IS FOR THE SURFACE
LOW CENTER TO MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS AND THEN DISSIPATE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 11N BETWEEN 60W AND 95W.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPIRALLING ANTICYCLONICALLY
ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF 20N. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING ON TOP
OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE THAT IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 70W. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN BY THE SHAPE OF THE 1012 MB
ISOBAR IN COLOMBIA. THE CIRCULATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
CLOSED OFF IN THE ANALYSIS. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWS UP
IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 82W. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA...AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND
82W. SCATTERED STRONG ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
9N TO 11N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW GOES FROM CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...
AND FLORIDA NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 32N WEST OF 50W. THIS BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS PART OF THE OVERALL DEEP LAYER TROUGH...THAT
IS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF THE  U.S.A. EAST COAST.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
IT ALSO SUPPORTS THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W
TO 26N60W 22N68W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N71W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N TO 30N
BETWEEN 50W AND 57W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N55W
25N60W 23N63W...AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. BROKEN
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N TO
23N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 19N63W
TO 25N54W BEYOND 32N43W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N25W
TO 25N31W TO 12N34W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
CURVES FROM 23N21W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 32N15W JUST EAST OF
THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF
THIS TROUGH...COVERING AFRICA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N41W TO 27N46W TO 19N57W
TO TRINIDAD/NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.

$$
MT



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