[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N20W 2N30W...SURGING S CROSSING
THE EQ AT 38W AND CONTINUING INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 17W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS
BETWEEN 32W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SWATH OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED
LIGHT STRATIFORM PRECIP COVERS MUCH OF REGION N OF 26N. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 1014 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 26N95W AND A
WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHES EWD TO 26N87W. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW TO 19N95W THEN CURVES BACK NWD BANKED
AGAINST THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED A FAIRLY DRAMATIC CONTRAST IN TEMPS
RANGING FROM NEAR 50 F ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE MID 70'S IN
THE WARM SECTOR. IN ADDITION...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SFC
LOW AND HIGH PRES OVER ERN TEXAS HAS LED TO PERSISTENT STRONG NE
WINDS AND WIND WAVES IN THE NW GULF...WHICH HAS PROMPTED A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR BEACHES ALONG S TX. SEE STATEMENTS FROM WFO
BROWNSVILLE FOR MORE INFO. MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE SE
PORTION SUPPORTED BY SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED IN THE BAHAMAS. IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE FLOW IS ZONAL ACROSS THE NRN HALF
AND WSW ACROSS THE SRN. THIS PATTERN IS NOT HAVING A BIG IMPACT
ON THE WEATHER BESIDES FOR A STREAK OF CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE SW GULF. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
MORE MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO THE SW GULF LATER TODAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REGION ANCHORED BY
AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS. SLY FLOW ON THE W
SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGING FLOW ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS IS FUELING PATCHES OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA. THE UPPER FLOW IS
THEN PUSHING LEFT OVER HIGH CLOUDS NWD INTO THE S CARIB W OF
70W. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE AS
THE GRADIENT IS STILL FAIRLY LOOSE IN RESPONSE TO THE RECENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS NOW MOSTLY N OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A
BROKEN DECK OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIKELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
LIE OVER THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT'S
REMNANT MOISTURE AND LOCAL TOPO AND ONSHORE FLOW INFLUENCES.
ELSEWHERE...TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE BEING
STEERED WWD BY THE TRADES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...ANALYZED 1021 MB NEAR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...IS BUILDING E INTO THE WRN ATLC BEHIND A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N50W AND CONTINUES SW TO JUST
N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. THERE IS NOT MUCH NEARBY UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS SFC
FEATURE...WITH THE FLOW BEING MAINLY SWLY. MOST OF THE
DYNAMICS/ENERGY IS LOCATED WELL N OF THE REGION AND FOR THAT
REASON...THE BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE WITH
A WEAK E-W SFC RIDGE TAKING ITS PLACE.

THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC IS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A STRONGLY TITLED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
NEWD FROM THE E CARIB ALONG 21N60W 32N49W. A 1026 MB SFC HIGH
PRES SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE CONTROLLING MUCH
OF THE SFC PATTERN AND PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES S OF 15N
BETWEEN 30W-50W. THE UPPER FLOW THEN FOLDS INTO A BROAD
EXTENSIVE TROUGH WITH A ROUGH AXIS RUNNING FROM AN UPPER LOW
NEAR THE MADEIRA ISLANDS WELL SSW INTO THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR
8N35W. THE UPPER CYCLONE IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH A SFC LOW
ANALYZED 1013 MB NEAR 30N21W. BESIDES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 120 NM NE OF THE LOW AND A PATCH OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS
FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 29W-34W...FAIR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
THE RULE.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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