[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 4 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
5N7W 1N20W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 25W...ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 34W...
TO 1N40W...INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2S TO 2N
BETWEEN 4W AND 7W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4S TO 4N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W...AND WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM OF THE COAST FROM BRAZIL TO GUYANA BETWEEN
50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 27N101W IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N95W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT WHICH RUNS FROM EAST CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND
AND NORTHWESTWARD TO FAR WEST TEXAS. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM 26N
TO 31N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W IN THE GULF WATERS AND IN TEXAS.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS
DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS BEING PUSHED FROM THE AREA OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ NORTHWARD ACROSS EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...
GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANYING
THIS RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT REACH
FROM 70W TO CENTRAL AMERICA ARE MOVING ON TOP OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR THAT ALREADY HAS BEEN IN PLACE IN THIS REGION.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LINES OF CONFLUENT WIND FLOW THAT HAVE
HELPED TO DEVELOP SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS...MAINLY NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W...FROM 12N TO
15N BETWEEN 62W AND 77W...AND FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND
80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W JUST NORTH OF PANAMA...
MOST PROBABLY PART OF THE ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 80W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES
20N JUST SOUTH OF CUBA STILL MORE TO THE NORTH NEAR 30N/31N.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 13N63W TO 20N60W TO 26N58W BEYOND 31N54W. THIS TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING THE 999 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N51W.
A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THIS GALE LOW CENTER THROUGH 31N49W TO
29N50W TO 27N60W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N60W TO 28N70W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N68W 27N60W 27N52W
29N47W BEYOND 31N44W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 31N24W TO 26N30W TO 18N38W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT.

$$
MT



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