[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 2 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 4N10W 2N25W 1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT
45W INTO NE BRAZIL. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 80-100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST OF 28W. CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N E OF 14W TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND OVER NE BRAZIL
MAINLY WEST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF
AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN OVER
PARTS OF MEXICO...PARTICULARLY E OF 100W. A DIFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS NW
MEXICO IS ENHANCING ALL THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. UPPER SWLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE ADVECTING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE
GULF... WHERE AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A
1025 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N64W IS PRODUCING 10-15
KT E TO SE RETURN SURFACE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SW AND SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THROUGH TUE.
ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE N GULF WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
IS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE WRN GULF DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1025 MB SFC HIGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE
BASIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-80W. THESE WINDS ARE
DRIVING PATCHES OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SEA...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF 16N. SIMILAR FRAGMENTS OF
MOISTURE ARE SEEN OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST FROM A HIGH LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN VENEZUELA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES. DRY AIR ALOFT
RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REGION. S TO SW WINDS
ON THE W PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER HIGH ARE HELPING TO DEVELOP
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION OVER N COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA.
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WED AND WILL THEN DECREASE THURSDAY THROUGH SAT
AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE ATLC DISCUSSION
AREA. A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC WEST OF 60W. THE BASE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
40W-60W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC. WLY
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICS.  A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N64W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO S
FLORIDA KEEPING WEATHER CONDITIONS RATHER TRANQUIL. A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N31W THEN CONTINUES SW TO
17N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT. A 1019 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER THE E
ATLC. A DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE OCEAN WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE E-CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF
25N BETWEEN 40W-60W DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

$$
GR




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net