[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W 1N35W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT
44W INTO NE BRAZIL. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 80-100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST OF 25W. CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER NE BRAZIL AND OVER SW
AFRICA FROM EQ-10W JUST W OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS COAST IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NE MEXICO AND THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE GULF. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE W PERIPHERY OF A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
IN THE SW ATLC NEAR 31N70W DOMINATES MOST OF THE REGION. THE
RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SET UP BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER
PRES IN THE NW GULF IS PRODUCING SE TO S RETURN FLOW OF 15 T0 20
KT PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. SOME
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS
MEXICO INTO THE GULF AND SE US. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE
GULF...WHILE AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS AFFECTING
PARTS OF GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AS WELL AS SE LOUISIANA. ACCORDING
TO THE COMPUTER MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE N
GULF ON WEDNESDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
IN THE WRN GULF AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1026 MB SFC HIGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W. THESE WINDS ARE DRIVING PATCHES OF
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SEA.
SIMILAR FRAGMENTS OF MOISTURE ARE SEEN OVER HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. A WIDE BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS EWD FROM THE E
CARIBBEAN INTO THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
WLY UPPER FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND
AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 7N45W. AN
EXTENSIVE RIDGE EXTENDS WNW FROM THIS HIGH COVERING NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
DRY AIR AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ARE FOUND OVER
MOST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS.
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS TE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE ATLC DISCUSSION
AREA. A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING N ALONG
75W. AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N52W
THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 20N59W. THERE ARE THREE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES RELATED TO THIS TROUGH. THE SOUTHERNMOST EXTENDS FROM
31N35W TO 17N46W AS A COLD FRONT...THEN IT CONTINUES AS A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 14N48W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY W OF 40W. THE OTHER TWO
REINFORCING FRONTS ARE LINED UP BEHIND THIS MAIN ONE. THE FIRST
ONE ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N47W TO JUST S OF BERMUDA. THE SECOND
ONE IS STILL WELL N OF THE AREA. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN THESE FRONTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED WELL N
OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT 10-20 KT E/NE
WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER E OF 30W.

$$
GR





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net