[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291812
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AT 29/1500 UTC IS NEAR 29.4N
56.2W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.  PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 55W-58W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 10 KT.  A CYCLONIC SWIRL IS SEEN ALONG THE ITCZ
AT 10N29W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN
24W-33W.  MORE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR 18N29W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 30W-32W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NOTED.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N61W 20N63W
12N65W 6N65W.  A 1013 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N63W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.  THIS WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF
HONDURAS TO W HONDURAS TO THE E PACIFIC.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
83W-89W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 13N29W 10N40W 9N60W.  OUTSIDE
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 10W-12W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 37W-45W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 55W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S
TEXAS ALONG 28N80W 27N90W 27N100W...MOSTLY VOID OF ANY
CONVECTION.  A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS S TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 23N81W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 80W-82W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO MOVING E.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO THE W
ATLANTIC...AND A 1018 MB HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO...BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVE ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE.
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE TRAVERSING THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM
8N-10N BETWEEN 75W-82W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LOW IS
CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N69W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM
10N-30N BETWEEN 60W-78W.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W
WITH CONVECTION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA ALONG 32N75W 28N80W MOSTLY VOID OF ALL CONVECTION.  A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N71W 26N76W 23N80W.  PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH.  A
102 MB HIGH IS JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N45W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS W OF T.S. ISAAC NEAR 27N65W.
A RIDGE IS ALONG 50W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N33W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-35N
BETWEEN 20W-45W.


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FORMOSA




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