[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AT 29/0300 UTC IS NEAR
29.2N 55.2W MOVING NORTHWEST 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 15N ALONG THE WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN A FEW CELLS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 26W AND 28W...TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N31W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 25N31W LOW PRESSURE CENTER
FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG THE LINE FROM 29N32W TO 24N33W TO 19N34W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W MOVING
WEST 10 KT. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18.5N ALONG
THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE GOES FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO EASTERN HONDURAS/CENTRAL NICARAGUA
FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH...AND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA AROUND THIS TROPICAL WAVE. THE
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NORTH
OF 17N BETWEEN HAITI AND 85W LEADING NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL ARE RELATED TO AN EAST-TO-WEST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ...
10N14W 14N23W 12N30W 10N40W 10N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
WITHIN 50 TO 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N9W 5N21W 9N26W 9N36W
9N45W 10N56W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH LOUISIANA
AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS
ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS WEST OF WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS...ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH RUNS FROM
ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO ANOTHER...FROM THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
COAST TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND ENDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO NOW
IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALONG THE HAITI/
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER NEAR 19N71W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 24N67W THROUGH THE
HISPANIOLA LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 14N71W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. A SMALL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 20N81W JUST OFF THE CUBA COAST. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS MOVING ONTO THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND/OR
DISSIPATED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING
THE LAST SIX HOURS. ANOTHER SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 5N85W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO COSTA RICA...MAYBE AT THE EDGE OF THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE 5N85W LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N56W.
A TROUGH GOES FROM THE 27N56W TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 20W AND 42W.
A COLD FRONT GOES FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EAST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND ENDS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF.

$$
MT




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