[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 28/0900 UTC IS NEAR
27.8N 54.6W MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
DEPRESSION MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N TO 32N
BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N50W 24N52W 22N55W 20N55W 17N56W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 12.5N ALONG THE WAVE. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
AND AREAS OF ALTERNATELY DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE CENTRAL CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS AREA IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE.
ITCZ SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 59W AND 65W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH
OF 22N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A SMALL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20N81W JUST OFF THE CUBA COAST.
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS MOVING ONTO THE EASTERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AND/OR DISSIPATED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. ANOTHER SEPARATE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN NEAR 5N85W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO COSTA RICA...MAYBE AT
THE EDGE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE 5N85W LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

...THE ITCZ...
13N17W 12N20W 11N26W 9N43W 9N47W 10N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...
FROM 3N TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND
FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
9N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH LOUISIANA
AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS
ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS WEST OF WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS...ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH RUNS FROM
ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO ANOTHER...FROM THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
COAST TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND ENDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO NOW
IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALONG THE HAITI/
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER NEAR 19N71W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 24N67W THROUGH THE
HISPANIOLA LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 14N71W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. A SMALL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 20N81W JUST OFF THE CUBA COAST. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS MOVING ONTO THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND/OR
DISSIPATED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING
THE LAST SIX HOURS. ANOTHER SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 5N85W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO COSTA RICA...MAYBE AT THE EDGE OF THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE 5N85W LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N56W.
A TROUGH GOES FROM THE 27N56W TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 20W AND 42W.
A COLD FRONT GOES FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EAST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND ENDS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF.

$$
MT


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