[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270642
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N51W. THIS LOW
CENTER HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS OR SO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
23N TO 26N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W
SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 11N ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON
TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING. ITCZ CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 10N40W 6N46W 4N53W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/55W SOUTH OF 16N
DRIFTING WEST. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N73W 17N74W
10N74W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
11N22W 9N34W 9N39W 8N47W 11N52W 10N55N 9N61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 5N TO 16N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
NORTH OF 24N95W 24N90W 26N81W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM 31N78W
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N85W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N85W TO 23N94W TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N83W 26N86W
23N89W...AND WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N89W
22N92W 21N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...IN RESPONSE TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...INTO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 10N99W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BEEN
AMPLIFYING DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM EARLIER TIME PERIODS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND ALTERNATELY
DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNDER THE RIDGE ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 80W
AND 81W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN
77W AND 85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SHORES OF HISPANIOLA. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THIS AREA IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE TROUGH/MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N65W TO 26N68W TO 22N77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N70W 27N75W...LEADING INTO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. SMALL CYCLONIC SWIRLS
ARE CONNECTED BY A TROUGH...ALONG THE LINE FROM 30N65W TO A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N68W TO A SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
23N72W TO 22N77W.  A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES GOES FROM 34N69W TO
31N78W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM 31N78W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N85W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 26N85W TO 23N94W TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
19N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 61W AND 66W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
32N21W TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N27W TO 19N31W TO 16N34W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE 1011 MB SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N51W...AND IN BETWEEN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 24N58W. THIS 24N58W LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR FROM 20N BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 50W AND 61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 52W AND
56W.

$$
MT




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