[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20.5N49W. THIS LOW
CENTER HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWEST DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR
SO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 24N
BETWEEN 45W AND 48W. OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM LATER TODAY OR WEDNESDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 13N
DRIFTING WEST. THE AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITH THIS WAVE
APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR JUST DRIFTING WEST DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 15N
TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 53W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W SOUTH
OF 22N WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN SURFACE
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE EAST OF 17N70W 11N64W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM PANAMA AND COLOMBIA CURVES INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...OVER THE AREA INTO WHICH THIS WAVE
IS MOVING.

...THE ITCZ...
12N17W 10N25W 10N29W 7N34W 8N42W 10N47W 10N53W 9N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING
THROUGH PERIODS OF DEVELOPMENT AND DISSIPATION ALONG THE AFRICA
COAST...IN THE AREA OF POSSIBLY THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 15N BETWEEN
THE AFRICA COAST AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THIS FLOW CONTINUES
AS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
WATERS...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 30N80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GOES FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N69W...
TO 20N79W OFF THE CUBA COAST...TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
15N93W AS THIS LOW CENTER SPINS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO JUST
OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR
TAMPA TO THE CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 90W.
THE COLD FRONT STILL PASSES FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL
GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N69W...TO 20N79W OFF THE CUBA COAST...TO
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 15N93W AS THIS LOW CENTER SPINS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AWAY FROM
SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO
29N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND NORTH OF 18N
BETWEEN WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 81W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES FROM PANAMA AND
COLOMBIA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W...FROM JUST WEST OF
JAMAICA TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS IN SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE EAST OF
17N70W 11N64W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH 32N27W TO 28N35W...TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N49W...TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 23N55W TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N69W...INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N79W OFF THE CUBA COAST. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N
TO 29N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N25W
TO 28N30W TO 25N37W. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
33N47W.

$$
MT




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