[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20N47W. THIS LOW
CENTER HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWEST DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR
SO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 23N
BETWEEN 44W AND 47W. OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A LITTLE
BIT TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 34W AND 35W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITH THIS WAVE
APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR JUST DRIFTING WEST DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 15N TO 20N
BETWEEN 48W AND 53W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH
OF 22N WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN SURFACE
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE EAST OF 17N68W 11N63W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM PANAMA AND COLOMBIA CURVES INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...OVER THE AREA INTO WHICH THIS WAVE
IS MOVING.

...THE ITCZ...
12N17W 10N25W 10N29W 7N34W 8N42W 10N47W 10N53W 9N61W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING THROUGH PERIODS OF
DEVELOPMENT AND DISSIPATION ALONG THE AFRICA COAST...IN THE
AREA OF POSSIBLY THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...FROM 11N TO 16N
BETWEEN 15W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 13N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THIS FLOW CONTINUES
AS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
WATERS...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 30N80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GOES FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N69W...
TO 20N79W OFF THE CUBA COAST...TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
15N93W AS THIS LOW CENTER SPINS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO JUST
OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. TWO CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 18.5N 92.5W AND
17.5N94W FROM JUST WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N80W TO NORTH
FLORIDA TO 28N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N87W TO
24N94W AND 20N97W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N69W...TO 20N79W OFF THE CUBA COAST...TO
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 15N93W AS THIS LOW CENTER SPINS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AWAY FROM
SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO
28N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FROM 18N TO
20N BETWEEN 67W AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES FROM PANAMA AND
COLOMBIA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ALL THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER HOURS
HAS DIMINISHED BY NOW. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE BEING SPREAD
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN
SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE EAST OF 17N68W 11N63W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH 32N27W TO 28N35W...TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N49W...TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 23N55W TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N69W...INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N79W OFF THE CUBA COAST. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N
TO 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W
TO 26N36W...ENDING IN BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A 1022 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N47W. THE COLD FRONT HAS WEAKENED
ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM 26N36W 26N48W 24N56W 24N60W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 24N60W TO 27N63W TO
30N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 27N31W 28N28W 30N26W BEYOND 32N25W.SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.

$$
MT




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