[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 212253
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE AT 21/2100 UTC IS NEAR
30.7N 56.8W. HELENE IS MOVING NORTH 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NEAR THE CENTER FROM 29N-34N BETWEEN 53W-59W.  A BAND OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE CENTER FROM 27N-29N
BETWEEN 53W-59W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W SOUTH
OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
FORMED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS FROM 9N TO 20N
BETWEEN 28W AND 36W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 12N ALONG THE WAVE.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 29W-34W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM
13N-15N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 12N35W 12N50W 10N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 14W-16W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE E GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 25N80W 27N87W...AND CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT TO SW
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 88W-93W.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT
NEAR THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO
DISSIPATE...AND SLY FLOW TO PREVAIL...DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE TO CENTRAL TEXAS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE N GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N81W.
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 80W-83W.  PATCHES OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND HISPANIOLA...W CUBA...AND OVER JAMAICA
FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 70W-78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N82W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS JUST E OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
19N74W.  THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W HAS NELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO
S FLORIDA ALONG 32N64W 27N70W 25N80W.  NO CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE FRONT.  HURRICANE HELENE IS WELL E OF BERMUDA NEAR 30.7N
56.8W.  A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N40W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW IS OVER HURRICANE
HELENE ESPECIALLY N OF THE CENTER.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N64W PRODUCING SOME SW SHEAR OVER HURRICANE
HELENE.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N41W.  A
LARGE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N24W.

$$
FORMOSA


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