[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 210010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE AT 20/2100 UTC IS NEAR 26.6N
57.1W. HELENE IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NEAR THE CENTER FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 54W-58W.  A BAND WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE CENTER FROM 25N-31N
BETWEEN 58W-60W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON AT 20/2100 UTC IS NEAR 39.2N
16.6W. GORDON IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 30 KT. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.  THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB.  PLEASE READ THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE 2100 UTC BULLETINS
WERE THE LAST OFFICIAL ADVISORIES ISSUED DUE TO GORDON BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL AND MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 39N-43N BETWEEN 10W-15W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 28W-31W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 22W-28W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 31W-35W.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
12N-16N BETWEEN 44W-47W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 12N25W 12N45W 9N50W
9N60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 10W-16W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 20W-22W...AND FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 31W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 27N80W 26N90W 26N95W...AND CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT
TO S MEXICO NEAR 20N97W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S
FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 80W-81W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF
THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 94W-97W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N AND E
OF 90W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N95W.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE TO THE W ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A NEW SURFACE LOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO
MOVE TO N TEXAS AND PRODUCE SLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE W GULF
OF MEXICO W OF 90W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE W
GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND HISPANIOLA FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 70W-72W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF NICARAGUA FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 80W-83W...AND OVER PANAMA FROM
6N-9N BETWEEN 80W-83W.  PATCHES OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N81W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS JUST E OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N75W.  THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W
NELY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N73W 27N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 26N-28N
BETWEEN 79W-80W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-31N
BETWEEN 69W-74W.  HURRICANE HELENE IS WELL SE OF BERMUDA NEAR
26.6N 57.1W.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
32N24W TO 31N30W 32N40W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW IS OVER
HURRICANE HELENE ESPECIALLY N OF THE CENTER.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 22N37W.  A LARGE HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
CENTERED NEAR 20N24W.

$$
FORMOSA


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