[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 200244
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006

DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND MORE RAGGED-LOOKING IN ITS APPEARANCE.
THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  GORDON SHOULD
MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL IT DEPARTS THE AZORES...HOWEVER
FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE HOSTILE FOR THE
MAINTENANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
GORDON WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THE POST-GORDON CYCLONE COULD IMPACT
PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND/OR SPAIN AS A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL
STORM.  WITHIN 48 HOURS WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO MERGE WITH A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES.

GORDON IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC GYRE...AND THE MOTION CONTINUES NEAR
090/29.  DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
GORDON OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL VERSION WILL GRADUALLY CURVE TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND THE LARGER MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/0300Z 37.7N  28.1W    70 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 38.0N  22.5W    60 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 40.5N  15.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 44.0N   8.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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